Braves Old Staff Primed to Succeed

[RTBP]

Mike Hampton faced batters Sunday for the first time since 2005. With the 35-year-old starter looking healthy, he could be a part of an Atlanta Braves’ rotation that turns out to be one of the oldest in memory.
We can judge the maturity of pitching rotations by weighing age by the number of starts. Sum the results of each players’ age multiplied by the number of games he started then divide by the total number of starts.
For example, if a team has a 20-year-old and a 40-year-old each make 20 starts, the average age of their starts is 30. But if the younger player makes 25 starts (20 x 25 = 500) and the older player makes 15 starts (40 x 15 = 600) the average age of their starts would by 27.5 (1,100/40 = 27.5).
(Note: Seasonal ages—the age of the player before July 1 of the given season—are used in all calculations.)
How might the Braves’ rotation rank at the end of 2008? Assigning ‘07 start totals to John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine and Chuck James and reasonable predictions for Hampton and Jair Jurrjens would make the Braves’ average starter the age of 34.4 years.

Pitcher Age Starts
Smoltz 41 32
Hudson 32 34
Glavine 42 34
James 26 30
Hampton 35 20
Jurrjens 22 12

Average 34.4

Thanks to Retrosheet.org, complete stats on starting pitchers go back to 1957. The following table shows the 10 oldest rotations in that time, along with their ERAs, strikeouts per nine innings and walks per nine innings. Oldest rotations:

Rk Team Season GS Avg.Age IP ERA K/9 BB/9
1. Yankees 2003 163 34.2 1,066 4.02 6.9 2.0
2. Yankees 2005 162 33.9 965 4.59 6.1 2.7
3. Astros 1988 162 33.9 1,053 3.45 6.6 2.9
4. Yankees 1988 161 33.8 906 4.55 5.0 2.8
5. Angels 1983 162 33.7 1,068 4.37 3.8 2.7
6. Yankees 2002 161 33.7 1,024 3.97 7.3 2.4
7. Red Sox 2005 162 33.7 1,002 4.54 6.0 2.6
8. Yankees 1987 162 33.6 945 4.37 5.1 3.2
9. Mets 1999 163 33.4 964 4.57 6.1 3.5

The ‘08 Braves might sit at the top of this list at the end of the season. Note that there are a number of good starting staffs in the top 10. Six of the teams listed reached the playoffs: The Yankees in 2002, ‘03 and ‘05, the Mets in ‘99, the Diamondbacks in ‘02 and the Red Sox in ‘05.
However, only the ‘03 Yankees went to the World Series and four of the other five were eliminated in first round of the playoffs. The ‘02 Diamondbacks and ‘03 Yankees posted numbers impressive for any age.
Why are older rotations successful? Notice the walks per nine innings column. Eight of the 10 teams allowed fewer than three walks per nine innings, a great number for a staff.
As starting pitchers age, the ones with great control keep their jobs.
Strikeouts and home runs stay constant, but walks go down steadily through age 35. In other words, pitchers survive long term because of their ability to control the strike zone. So, old staffs tend to keep walks to a minimum. Fewer baserunners usually leads to fewer runs allowed.
The Braves’ starters are in a good position to post low walk numbers, considering their career walks per nine innings: Smoltz (2.6), Hudson (2.8), Glavine (3.0), James (3.4), Hampton (3.6) and Jurrjens (3.2).
All of this assumes the Braves’ staff remains healthy. Given that Glavine and Smoltz are coming off seasons in which they started at least 30 games each, that’s a good bet.

The Braves might get only about 40 starts from pitchers under the age of 30. Given the history of their older pitchers, however, there is no reason to believe this staff can’t succeed.
Old starting staffs control the strike zone, and history tells us they have a good chance of making the playoffs.